SpaceWorks released its annual nano/microsatellite forecast earlier this week, packed with insights into the rapidly growing small satellite market. In addition to the usual favorites, this year’s report also explores the impact of small satellite operator, Planet, considers new applications (such as space-based Blockchain), and highlights the top small satellite launch vehicles.
SpaceWorks estimates between 1,800 and 2,600 nano/microsatellites will launch in the next 5 years. Projections have been increased compared to last year’s forecast to reflect an uptick in small satellite launch opportunities, the continued maturation of emerging small satellite operators, and a strong influx of venture capital financing into the space sector. Between 263 – 413 nano/microsatellites are expected to launch globally in 2018, representing a 15% decrease from 2017, but an overall increase of 160% from 2016.
This is the 8th edition of the Nano/Microsatellite Forecast published by SpaceWorks, going back nearly a decade and making it the longest running small satellite report in the industry. As the small satellite market has grown, so too, has SpaceWorks. The 8th edition of this report includes a number of new features:
Consolidation of Operator Types – Operator types can be tricky: is a government-funded, commercially built satellite a commercial mission? What about federally-funded research labs? This year SpaceWorks has introduced three mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive operator types: Military, Commercial, and Civil.
Novel Applications – While the dominant applications for small satellites continue to be earth observation, communications, scientific, and technology, there is a rising number of new application types. SpaceWorks introduced the “Novel Applications” classification this year to cover applications such as space-based blockchain, art installations (like Rocket Lab’s Humanity Star), space burial, and virtual reality.
Case Study #1: The Planet Effect – Small satellite operator Planet launched 146 satellites in 2018, but are they the only reason for the exponential market growth seen in the market over the past 10 years? Case Study #1 of the 2018 Forecast explores the effect of Planet on the nano/microsatellite market.
Case Study #2: Small Satellite Launch Vehicle Leaderboard – This is a new twist on a classic case study found in previous forecasts. In the 2018 report SpaceWorks highlights the top small satellite launch vehicles, as determined by SpaceWorks’ Launcher Maturity Index. There are several familiar faces on the leaderboard this year, as well as some new ones, including the ISRO’s Small Satellite Launch Vehicle.
Case Study #3: Communications Constellations – Communications constellations are expected to encompass 20% of nano/microsatellites launched in the next 5 years. Case Study #3 dives deep into firms pursuing nano/microsatellite communications constellations.
INSIDE LOOK! – Did you know that SpaceWorks provides market research for companies across all segments of the space industry, not just the small satellite market? In the 2018 Forecast, SpaceWorks is offering an exclusive preview of questions answered through private market research engagements. Check out the final pages of the report to see insights regarding spaceport usage, mega-constellations, ground stations, and more.
The 2018 forecast concludes that market potential is still high in the nano/microsatellite segment and the year ahead will be another strong one for the industry. As major small satellite operators, such as Planet, reach the constellation-sustainment phase, it will be up to new operators in the industry to pick up the slack. Already in 2018 small satellite operator, Spire, has launched 10 satellites, indicating there are some firms up to the challenge. Ultimately, the future growth of the small satellite market will depend largely on the ability of operators to secure capital and create sustainable customer relationships.
Check out the SpaceWorks 2018 Nano/Microsatellite Forecast for full small satellite market trends and observations.
Lead Economic Analyst, SpaceWorks
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams is the Lead Economic Analyst at SpaceWorks Enterprises, where he oversees delivery of business strategy and economic analysis engagements for private-sector clients. His primary focuses include market demand modeling, parametric cost assessment, business case development, and strategic analysis. He received degrees in Economic Consulting and Marketing from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University.
